War between Israel and Iran 2025

 

The conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025 escalated significantly, with both countries exchanging missile strikes and airstrikes. Here's a detailed overview:

*Background*

The tensions between Israel and Iran have been building over the years, particularly due to Iran's nuclear program and its support for militant groups in the Middle East. Israel has been vocal about its concerns regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions, while Iran has repeatedly threatened to destroy Israel.

*Israeli Airstrikes on Iran*

On June 12, 2025, Israel launched a large-scale air campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key military and nuclear program leadership. The strikes were part of "Operation Rising Lion," aimed at degrading Iran's nuclear program and missile capabilities.

Some of the targeted locations included ¹ ²:

- *Natanz Enrichment Complex*: Israeli airstrikes destroyed the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) and damaged electrical substations and support buildings critical to the power supply across the facility.

- *Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center*: The strike targeted a metallic uranium production facility and infrastructure for re-converting enriched uranium to produce nuclear fuel.

- *Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant*: There were unverified reports of strikes at or near this facility, which is especially hardened against attacks due to its underground location.

*Iranian Retaliation*

About 18 hours after the initial Israeli strikes, Iran launched a two-wave ballistic missile attack targeting Israel. However, none of the drones entered Israeli airspace, and the attack seemed to have limited to no effect.

*Casualties and Damage*

The Israeli strikes resulted in significant damage to Iranian nuclear facilities and military infrastructure. Several senior Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists were killed, including ¹:

- *IRGC Commander Hossein Salami*

- *Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri*

- *Nuclear scientists Fereydoon Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi*

*The Iran-Israel War: What the Top Experts Are Saying, And Why It Matters*  

The fighting between Iran and Israel that kicked off on February 28, 2026, and pulled the US in, didn’t stay a “proxy” war for long. Within weeks it became a direct state-to-state air and missile campaign, then an economic war over the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. 

Now, in mid-2026, we have a fragile ceasefire, a 60-day US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding signed in June, and a lot of recriminations about what was gained and lost.

I’ve been reading statements from military intelligence veterans, nuclear experts, economists, and legal scholars who have been closest to this. They don’t agree on everything. But a few critical themes keep coming up.

*1. “We overestimated air power and underestimated Iranian resilience”*  

*Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran division of Israeli military intelligence, now at INSS*

Citrinowicz has been the bluntest Israeli voice on strategy. On the Haaretz Podcast in May 2026 he called both of Israel’s recent campaigns against Iran “strategic failures” that “critically damaged the country's deterrence.”

His core argument:  

> “We overestimated air power and underestimated Iranian resilience,” resulting in the “worst possible strategic reality, with a more extreme, decentralized regime in Tehran.”

Citrinowicz says Tehran learned it can absorb strikes from the two strongest air forces in the world and still keep “the capacity to launch missiles and drones, and theoretically has the potential to move to a nuclear bomb.” He also warns of a boomerang effect: wars meant to stop Iran’s nuclear program have likely made the regime _more_ determined to get a bomb to prevent future attacks.

On the US side, he told the Wall Street Journal that President Trump faces a simple dilemma over Hormuz: “if he wants to take control over the straits, he will need to take over the straits. He is not able to reach his military or strategic objectives with the force he has now.”

*2. “An absurd risk built around assassination”*  

*Avner Vilan, former senior defense official and Iran nuclear expert*

Speaking on 103FM in July 2026, Vilan praised Mossad’s operational reach but slammed the political goal behind it.  

> “Full responsibility for this lies with Benjamin Netanyahu, who decided to go to war with Khamenei’s assassination as an objective,” Vilan said. “He took a risk, and in my view, it was an absurd risk.”

For Vilan, the strategy “did not correspond with reality. It failed miserably, and we are paying the price for it now.” His critique is less about military capability and more about tying war aims to decapitation strikes instead of broader diplomatic or containment goals.

*3. “Total victory for Iran and total defeat for the United States”*  

*Robert Kagan, senior fellow at Brookings; Richard Haass, veteran US diplomat*

The June 17, 2026 MOU signed at Versailles suspended hostilities for 60 days. Trump called it Iran’s “unconditional surrender”. Tehran called it a “record of US failure”.

Experts outside government read it very differently.  

Kagan said the deal was “a total victory for Iran and a total defeat for the United States,” pointing to Iranian control over Hormuz as “a major blow to the United States' position in the region, and it's also a major blow to Israel's security”.  

Haass described it as “a massive victory for Iran,” citing US failure to topple the government, Iran’s retention of drones and missiles, deferral of nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and a US pledge not to interfere internally.

_Foreign Policy_ and _The Atlantic_ similarly framed the outcome as a “defeat” for the US and Israel. BBC’s Jeremy Brown summed it up: “the US and Israeli air forces scored a series of tactical victories. But they were not enough to avoid a strategic defeat.”

*4. “The war turned the seas into a tollbooth”*  

*Erik Grundt, Rystad Energy; Emma Salisbury, Foreign Policy Research Institute*

The economic analysts have focused on Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. After Feb 28, Iran declared Hormuz closed, then set up a “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” that could demand payments for passage.

Grundt warned this “could set a dangerous precedent and make international seaborne trade much more expensive, a cost that would ultimately be passed on to end-consumers”.

Salisbury noted the psychological power of mines: “You don’t even have to have laid mines — you just have to make people believe that you’ve laid mines”. Pentagon briefings cited in April said clearing could take six months.

Iran also told the Houthis to be ready to close Bab el-Mandeb if its civilian infrastructure was hit, with IRGC officers in Yemen controlling the decision. Analyst Torbjorn Solvedt called it a threat to “the only major alternative route for oil exports from the region”.

*5. “Iran is testing boundaries like Israel on October 8”*  

*Yonatan Adiri, geopolitics and technology expert*

In a June 2026 interview, Adiri argued Tehran is in a “learning competition” to rediscover limits.  

> “It understands that it needs to rub against others, go out and rediscover the boundaries again, vis-a-vis its neighbors, vis-a-vis Israel, and of course also vis-a-vis the Americans.”

He pointed to Iran’s reported attack on a UAE nuclear reactor as “a dramatic event with enormous economic implications”, and said Iran is “prepared for very significant friction.”

*6. Legal and norms experts: “From rules-based to rule of man”*

International lawyers have been split on justification. Israel told the UN Security Council on March 10 that it was in an “ongoing conflict” and didn’t need a new self-defense claim for each strike. Scholars like Eliav Lieblich and others pushed back, saying “there was no fighting between Israel and Iran between June and February,” so a fresh justification was needed.

ICC founding prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo compared the war to Russia’s war in Ukraine, saying the world is moving from a “rules-based system” to the “rule of the man”. The IAEA also said it “cannot provide any information on the current size, composition or whereabouts of the stockpile of enriched uranium in Iran” and called it “indispensable and urgent” for Tehran to meet NPT obligations.

*7. The public and economic readouts*

Inside Israel, polling shows the gap between official messaging and public perception. An IDI survey in March found 82% supported ongoing operations. But a June Hebrew University/Agam poll found 93.1% believed “Iran had won the war,” 82.9% believed it weakened Israel’s long-term security, and 86% had a negative opinion of the June peace agreement.

Economically, Moody’s cut Israel’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.7% from 5.0%, citing “fragile and tenuous” ceasefires with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. Debt-to-GDP is now expected to stabilize at 70%.

*Where the analysis converges*

1. *Deterrence is broken, for both sides.* Israeli experts like Citrinowicz say Iran no longer fears Israeli strikes. Iranian experts quoted in regional media say the same about US threats. The result is more risk-taking, not less.

2. *The battlefield moved to economics.* Closing Hormuz became “a weapon of mass economic destruction of unique power” and “far more useful option than any nuclear device,” as _The Independent_ put it.

3. *US-Israel coordination peaked tactically, failed strategically.* The initial campaign “decapitated the upper ranks of Iran’s political and military establishment” and achieved “total air supremacy”. But without a plan to hold Hormuz or translate strikes into political terms, Washington and Jerusalem lost leverage.

4. *Nuclear uncertainty is higher.* The IAEA has limited access, and Citrinowicz argues the wars increased motivation in Tehran to weaponize.

---

*A closing thought*

The experts don’t agree on who “won.” The hawkish Washington Examiner view is that the US should “encourage Israel to resume coordinated strikes” to reopen Hormuz and “force Tehran to accept enforceable limits”. The institutionalist view from Brookings and Haass is that the MOU already conceded too much.

What almost everyone agrees on is that the 2025-2026 war changed the rules. It moved the conflict from shadows and proxies to open strikes, naval blockades, and economic coercion. It exposed how fragile international law looks when major powers act first and justify later. And it left both Jerusalem and Tehran feeling less secure, even as both claim they degraded the other.

As Citrinowicz put it, the strategic reality now is more extreme and decentralized. That means the next crisis won’t start with a big speech. It will probably start with a ship, a missile test, or a payment demand at a strait — and experts on all sides are already watching those fault lines.

*International Reaction*

The conflict drew international attention, with the United States playing a key role in the crisis. US President Donald Trump warned that "even more brutal" attacks on Iran would follow if Iran did not commit to a nuclear deal with the United States. Iran subsequently announced its withdrawal from US-Iran nuclear talks.

*Analysis and Implications*

The conflict has significant implications for the Middle East and global security. Analysts suggest that Israel's strikes were intended to impose discrete military effects on Iran, including suppressing Iranian air defenses, degrading Iranian retaliatory capabilities, and disrupting Iranian command-and-control.

The conflict's outcome remains uncertain, with both sides vowing to continue their actions. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has promised retaliation, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that Israel's war against Iran's nuclear program will continue "for as long as it takes to remove the threat" 

*FAQ: Iran-Israel War 2025-2026*

*1. When did the direct war between Iran and Israel start?*

The direct state-to-state fighting began on *February 28, 2026*. It followed years of proxy clashes and escalated into missile, drone, and air strikes between Iran and Israel. The US joined strikes in mid-2025 and again in 2026.

*2. Why did the war start?*

Experts point to 3 overlapping reasons:

- *Nuclear program*: Israel and the US cited Iran’s enrichment and lack of IAEA access as a red line.

- *Regional proxies*: Ongoing attacks via Hezbollah, Houthis, and other Iran-backed groups.

- *Deterrence breakdown*: Both sides tested each other’s limits after the Gaza ceasefire. Analyst Yonatan Adiri said Iran was “rediscovering the boundaries” with neighbors and the US.

*3. What did the US do in the war?*

The US deployed carriers, warships, and aircraft to the region and conducted strikes on Iranian facilities. In June 2026 the US and Iran signed a 60-day Memorandum of Understanding at Versailles to suspend hostilities. Trump called it “unconditional surrender”; Iran called it a “record of US failure.”

*4. What is the current status? Ceasefire or still war?*

As of July 2026 there is a *fragile ceasefire* under the June MOU. Moody’s cited “fragile and tenuous” ceasefire agreements with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas as a risk to Israel’s economy. Iran kept control of key shipping lanes and missile/drone capacity during the truce.

*5. What did top Israeli experts say about the strategy?*

- *Danny Citrinowicz, ex-head of Iran division, IDF Intelligence*: Called the war a “strategic failure” that “critically damaged the country's deterrence.” He said Israel “overestimated air power and underestimated Iranian resilience” and now faces “the worst possible strategic reality”.

- *Avner Vilan, Iran nuclear expert*: Blamed Netanyahu for an “absurd risk” built around targeting Supreme Leader Khamenei. “It did not correspond with reality. It failed miserably, and we are paying the price for it now.”

*6. What did US experts say about the outcome?*

- *Robert Kagan, Brookings*: Called the June deal “a total victory for Iran and a total defeat for the United States”.

- *Richard Haass, diplomat*: Said it was “a massive victory for Iran” because the US failed to topple the government, Iran kept missiles/drones, and sanctions were eased.

- BBC analysis: US and Israeli air forces had “tactical victories” but suffered a “strategic defeat.”

*7. What happened with oil and shipping?*

Iran threatened to close the *Strait of Hormuz* and set up a “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” to charge ships. It also told Houthis to prepare to close the *Bab el-Mandeb* in the Red Sea.

Energy analysts warned this could make global trade “much more expensive” and that the Red Sea now carries ∼7% of global energy supply.

*8. Is Iran closer to a nuclear bomb now?*

The IAEA said it “cannot provide any information on the current size, composition or whereabouts of the stockpile of enriched uranium in Iran” and called access “indispensable and urgent.”

Experts like Citrinowicz argue the wars increased Tehran’s motivation to weaponize because it feels strikes can’t be deterred otherwise.

*9. How did the war affect Israel’s economy?*

Moody’s cut Israel’s 2026 growth forecast from 5.0% to 3.7% and raised debt expectations to 70% of GDP, citing geopolitical risk. Israel’s credit rating was kept at Baa1 with stable outlook.

*10. What does public opinion in Israel say?*

Polling is mixed. In March, 82% supported ongoing operations. But a June poll found 93.1% believed “Iran had won the war,” 82.9% said it weakened Israel’s long-term security, and 86% had a negative view of the June peace agreement.

*11. Did any international law issues come up?*

Yes. The UN’s human rights chief Volker Türk warned some attacks could be war crimes under the Geneva Conventions. Legal scholars debated whether Israel’s March strikes needed new self-defense justification. Former ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo said the world is shifting from “rules-based system” to “rule of the man.”

*12. What’s the biggest risk now?*

Experts agree on 3 risks:

1. *Economic warfare*: Control of Hormuz/Bab el-Mandeb as leverage

2. *Nuclear breakout*: Less IAEA visibility + more motivation

3. *Decentralized escalation*: Both sides feel deterrence failed, so smaller clashes can spiral.

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Topics about this Article

- *Iran-Israel War 2026: Timeline & Key Events*

- *US Joins Iran-Israel Conflict: What Happened*

- *Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Oil & Trade Impact*

- *Ceasefire Deal June 2026: Winners and Losers*

- *Experts Analysis: Who Won the Iran-Israel War*

- *Nuclear Risk: IAEA Warning After Strikes*

- *Economic Fallout: Moody’s Cuts Israel Growth Forecast*

- *IRAN vs ISRAEL: WAR BREAKS OUT*

- *60-DAY CEASEFIRE SIGNED*

- *HORMUZ CLOSED: OIL SHOCK*

- *EXPERTS: "TOTAL VICTORY FOR IRAN"*

- *ISRAEL'S STRATEGIC FAILURE?*

- *US STRIKES IRAN: WHAT NOW*

- *WORLD ON EDGE: MIDDLE EAST WAR

- #IranIsraelWar

- #MiddleEastCrisis  

- #StraitOfHormuz

- #IsraelIranConflict

- #BreakingNews2026

- #Geopolitics